About 300 abattoirs in the United States still have not had their export licences renewed to export beef to China and it seems Australia is filling the gap. Before Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff hikes, American beef exporters were already facing problems with their third-largest market. According to the US Meat Export Federation, American pork and poultry plants had their export registrations with China renewed on March 16, but China "had still not renewed the eligibility of any US beef establishments". "The majority of US beef production is now ineligible for China," it said. "This impasse definitely hit our March beef shipments harder and the severe impact will continue until China lives up to its commitments under the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement." While some US beef has trickled into China in the past few weeks, ABC Landline has been told the trade has now ground to a halt especially after China announced retaliation tariffs. In 2024, the United States exported $US1.6 billion ($A2.57 billion) worth of beef to China, making it the third-largest export destination. Australian grain-fed beef in demand Statistics from Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) show Australian grain-fed beef exports to China have ramped up significantly, with 21,885 tonnes shipped in February and March — up nearly 40 per cent on the same period last year. Speaking at a meat processing industry conference on the Gold Coast this week, Bindaree Food Group's Andrew Simpson said the trade war was creating indirect opportunities. "If there's a tit-for-tat around the globe and countries like Japan or China push up reciprocal tariffs, it may prevent American beef becoming commercially viable into those regions [and] Australian beef will fill the gap, which could present a short-term opportunity," he said. Global meat analyst Brett Stuart said Australia would be a clear winner going forward. "Australia is now the lone supplier of high-quality white fat marbled beef into China," he said. sales to China have fallen to zero … and not only is the market now closed based on the March 16 production date, but the combined retaliation tariffs by China now take the tariff on US beef to 116 per cent, a level that will quickly halt trade. Are we missing the bigger picture? But shadow trade minister Kevin Hogan said the trade war between the two biggest economies in the world could hurt demand for Australian exports. "We're a large exporting nation and we need global growth to be good," he said. "In the short term this trade war might present opportunities for Australian beef exports, but the bigger picture here is, if this tariff war slows growth in both the US and China, then demand for a lot of the things we sell overseas would slow." Rabobank global strategist Michael Every said ongoing commentary about Trump's tariffs was missing the bigger picture. Speaking at the Food Futures conference in Darwin this week, he said most nations, including Australia, had not grasped the seriousness of what was happening in the world. "We're now in an era of economic statecraft where it's about national security and national interests, rather than inflation or a balanced budget. These are irrelevant points now," Mr Every said. "Fundamentally, it will come down to the US trying to set terms to China, decouple where it can, and then saying to everyone else globally — and particularly in the West, like Australia — so, are you with us or not? "And if you're not, well, good luck to you."